What Is Your Next Step In The Property Market?
July 28, 2022
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What Is Your Next Step In The Property Market? When you flip open the papers or turn on the news nowadays, the common buzzwords are
The move from an HDB flat to a private home is a well-trodden path, one that saw many Singapore families turn their dream of owning and living in a condominium into reality. Today, many households continue to aspire to live in a private condo development that offers exclusive facilities and different lifestyles.
With the strong growth in HDB resale flat prices in the past year, many flat owners have decided to make that switch. HDB resale values started to recover in the second half of 2019 after booking six consecutive years of decline. In 2021, HDB resale prices surged by 12.7%, following a 5% increase in 2020. This has provided the impetus for many HDB upgraders to act, selling their flat and recycling the proceeds to buying a private home – either in the resale market or in a new launch project, particularly in the mass market.
Consider these first!
For HDB flat owners who have met the 5-year minimum occupation period (MOP) and are seriously thinking about moving to a private condo, there are several key considerations to mull over.
1. Motivation to switch to a private home
Have a clear idea of what is the objective of making the move from an HDB flat to a private home. Is it to enjoy the more privacy in a gated condo project and to have exclusive use of various condo facilities, from swimming pools, to yoga pavilion, to herb garden and club house? Perchance, a certain condo project is highly attractive, or perhaps it is to entertain the possibilities of potential capital gains in the future? Tracking the URA private property price index (PPI) and the HDB Resale Price Index (HRPI), it appears that the PPI has enjoyed a faster growth rate on a 5-year and 10-year basis as at Q1 2022, compared to the HRPI (see Chart 1). Thus making the move to a private property seems to be the favourable choice for those who wish to grow their wealth in a stable and safe manner, all while hedging against inflation.
Chart 1: URA Property Price Index vs HDB Resale Price Index
Source: PropNex Research, URA, HDB
2. Financial outlay and monthly repayment
Upgraders tend to look at mass-market private homes in the Outside Central Region (OCR) or executive condominiums (ECs) – a type of public and private housing hybrid. In recent years, residential property prices have continued to climb and have reached a new peak.
Based on URA Realis caveat data, the average transacted prices for OCR new launches, OCR resale and new EC projects have surpassed that of 2021 at $1.74 million, $1.25 million and $1.37 million respectively (see Table 1).
At these prices, buyers will be looking at a monthly loan repayment of anything between $3,900 and $5,500 based on the assumption that the upgrader has sold the flat and does not have any other financial commitments. Table 2 illustrates the financial outlay should the buyer borrows at 75% LTV (loan to value), at a 2% interest rate and a 25-year loan tenure. For most home upgraders, they are able to simply plan their property portfolio in such a way that they need not tap on their cash savings. They are able to roll their profits from the sale of their current flat and multiply their wealth thereafter. The secret to how the rich gets richer!
However, before dong so, would-be buyers should work with an experienced real estate salesperson to review their finances before embarking on big-ticket purchase such as a new home. If you are keen to speak to me to explore your options on your next move, simply click this link.
Table 1: Average Transacted Prices ($) of Private OCR Non-landed New Sales, Resale Homes and New ECs
Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis
Table 2: Monthly loan repayments illustration based on Average Transacted Prices
Figure 1: Average household income growth (%) from 2002 to 2019
*Assumption: Buyer has no other financial commitments, has sold the HDB flat, borrowing at 2% interest rate, with loan tenure of 25 years.
3. Maintenance/conservancy fees
Consider also the cost of living in a private condo as opposed to HDB flats in terms of the maintenance or service and conservancy charge payable each month. For HDB flats the reduced S&CC is typically about $64 for 4-room flats and about $80 for 5-room flats. On the other hand, maintenance fee at condos could easily run into a couple of hundred dollars and the amount varies depending on the size and share values of the unit. In addition, private condo owners may not enjoy certain incentives offered by the government, such as S&CC rebates for example. But, the potential capital appreciation will be greater for private homes than the rebates you’ll potentially get by staying in an HDB (if you qualify for them that is). So it is really a matter of bigger long-term gains vs minimal short-terms gains.
4. Chance to purchase the property separately
By selling the flat (which was jointly bought) and buying a new property, the couple gets the chance to “decouple”– purchasing the new home under one person’s name. This will present an opportunity for the other person to buy a residential property further down the road without having to pay additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) as it would be the individual’s first home purchase.
When is the right time to upgrade?
It is not possible to perfectly time the market but would-be upgraders could take some guidance from price movements in both the private and HDB resale segments. Ideally, owners would want to take advantage of a stronger HDB resale price growth, especially if private home prices are likely to plateau or see a much slower increase.
It is projected that HDB resale prices could climb by 6% to 8% in 2022 – at a faster clip than that of private residential properties. Since the implementation of new cooling measures in December 2021, private home prices are expected to rise at a slower pace of 3% to 5% this year, compared to the 10.6% jump in 2021. Thus making it a great opportunity to enter the private property market.
While strong demand had driven prices up in 2021, inflationary pressures could be a factor to watch this year as rising construction cost and manpower cost may push up prices. In addition, with interest rates expected to inch up through 2022, some buyers may want to make their purchase sooner rather than later to lock-in more favourable mortgage rates. That is the market sentiment for the year and I hope it has been beneficial in helping you make a more informed decision on your next smart move!
If you want to lock-in a more favourable mortgage rate or make a smart purchase based on the old price tag, reach out to me. Simply click this link to book a personalised consultation.
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